Columnists are already pointing out the low initial rate of ballot return in Tuesday's largely vote-by-mail primary election. We noted about 53,000 ballots turned in as of Feb.28; It looks like we’ve had a bump over the weekend as the count is now up to over 75,000.
That’s still a 15% return rate, compared with 60% overall turnout of San Francisco voters in the 2020 and 2016 primaries. Meanwhile, the statewide return rate looks to be 12% so far.
It’s clear that many voters are still making up their minds; Joe Eskenazi’s column this morning predicts a total turnout of less than 50%. Several factors could be driving voter apathy, such as sensational coverage of President Joe Biden’s age, or ambivalence over US support for Israel in the Gaza War. However, it looks like overall turnout so far in San Francisco is still higher than in the rest of the state.
Notably, over 3,500 Democratic crossover ballots have been taken in so far, indicating interest in the presidential primary.
[We updated this post to remove speculation about crossover ballots and the US Senate race, an open primary. Crossover ballots also do not include the Democratic Party leadership race. Decline-to-state voters would have had to register as Democrat by Jan. 4 in order to vote in that race. ]