Musings on Policing San Francisco, and an Election Update

This month's election, a poll, and current events in New York may offer some lessons

Last week’s election confirmed increasingly louder public calls for a severe shift in public safety policy, with solid voter approval for a ballot measure that corrals an activist Police Commission while promising less red tape for beat cops and new awareness technologies for police. Voters also rejected Measure B, which Some Say was a kayfabe play from the city’s civil service unions to block the immediate hiring and training of more police officers without a similar boost for other public safety workers. The whole thing has local media spinning in their chairs as they’ve downplayed what now looks to be a slow but sizable turnout.

So, where do we go from here?

Mayor London Breed struck an optimistic tone in her State of the City address last week, talking up the impending rollout of 400 automated license plate-reading cameras at 100 key intersections this month, along with new crime-fighting cameras and drones thanks to the passage of Measure E, which will also in her words ensure that “our sworn officers are out in the field and not behind a desk.”

Breed also noted an upturn in police academy applications, plus plans to add 200 more officers next year “and get to full police staffing in three years.”

Rudy Gonzalez, Secretary-Treasurer of the Building Trades Council and point person for the city’s ongoing labor negotiations is skeptical any such plans can go forward without similar attention to other emergency services.

“We proposed a plan that would allow us to staff the department without sacrificing other critical services, but the mayor opposed it,” Gonzalez said in a text. “If she changed her mind, great. But it seems more likely that she either still does not have a plan or is prepared to sacrifice critical services, which will compromise [San Francisco’s] safety.”

Meanwhile, Mark Farrell, the former supervisor and interim mayor running against Breed in November, has proposed a ballot measure to revive an earlier program allowing officers to defer retirement without sacrificing their pensions. Joe Arrellano, spokesperson for Breed’s reelection campaign, points out that “the soonest a ballot measure could be introduced for his proposal is 2026. Mayor Breed’s plan will have the department almost fully staffed by then.”

But even if the Way is challenged, the Will to restore SFPD to its historical staffing level is on all sides. But what if it isn’t enough?

As it turns out, GrowSF, the tech-fueled centrist advocacy group that rode a wave of successes in last week’s vote, may have uncovered public support for even more cops-per-capita in a poll they conducted last month.

Until now, San Francisco’s powers that be have agreed on, whether by cocktail napkin-sealed deal or data-driven study, a cops-per-capita level that, while above the national average, is in the middle of the pack of major US cities. A report based on 2015 Uniform Crime Reporting data had San Francisco at roughly 26.4 officers per 10,000 residents, while New York had 42.3 officers per 10,000 residents. According to another study, Paris had 38 officers per 10,000 residents in 2018.

The biggest obsatcle to such a goal now, obviously, is a fiscal one: San Francisco faces a brutal budget this year, with a $800 million deficit that left Breed directing departments to make cuts early on.

There are also obvious political and policy pitfalls with the idea. Peer-reviewed studies show that more cops on the beat deter violent offenders and save more lives, including in at-risk communities. But they can also expose those same communities to over-policing for low-level crimes and thus perpetuate systemic discrimination.

The answer may well lie in more police but still with those reporting rules rank-and-file cops consider onerous. Plus you have to find a way to pay for it.

One thing Breed can be thankful for: she’s not in the pickle New York mayor Eric Adams is in. Faced with a spike in subway violence, Adams lobbied Albany to fund more transit cops, and instead Gov. Kathy Hochul, in an apparent sop to transit unions and suburban voters, sent in the National Guard. Police managers are up in arms and Adams is apparently gritting his teeth in silent acquiescence.

Election Update: the DTrip’s Gang of Six

New election results reported today show an overall turnout of 45% in San Francisco , compared with 29% turnout so far statewide.

No results changed today, but votes counted on March 8 allowed three more progressives to make the gate for the local Democratic Party leadership race— vice-chair [and former District 3 supervisor candidate] Peter Galotta, Attorney and gay Asian activist Michael Nguyen, and —lo and behold— former supervisor Gordon Mar. So now, along with former supervisors Connie Chan, John Avalos and Jane Kim, there is a Gang of Six.

Worth Reading: Another NIMBY Jumpscare in the Valley

When urbanist former Examiner writer Benjamin Schneider and Chronicle Defender of Nostalgic Faith John King agree that a housing project is problematic, it’s worth paying attention.

A mixed-use project featuring a trio of 300-plus foot towers are planned for the former campus of Sunset Magazine in Menlo Park, which currently counts a Russian oligarch among its owners. Schneider, compares it to the quixotic “Sunset Skyscraper” spite project and says it could be “disastrous” politically for boosters of sustainable communities, “giving NIMBYs across the country a terrifying symbol for their reactionary campaigns. It would be just as galvanizing as the Sunset District tower, a suburban Tour Montparnasse built by a Russian oligarch.” More here.